Artificial intelligence is on track to become a $4.8 trillion industry by 2033 — roughly the size of Germany’s economy — but its benefits are far from evenly distributed, according to a new report from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).
While AI promises major productivity boosts and is driving digital innovation across sectors, the U.N. agency is sounding the alarm on the risks it poses to the global workforce. The report, released Thursday, warns that AI could affect up to 40% of jobs worldwide, primarily through automation.
One of the core concerns is that the gains from AI tend to favor capital over labor. In other words, companies and investors stand to benefit more than workers — a trend that could widen the gap between developed and developing nations. “The economic rewards of AI are highly concentrated,” the report notes, emphasizing that low-cost labor markets in the Global South could lose their competitive edge.
The warning echoes previous concerns raised by the International Monetary Fund and the World Economic Forum. Earlier this year, the WEF reported that 41% of employers plan to reduce staffing in roles that AI can replicate.
Beyond the workforce, the U.N. report sheds light on a growing divide between nations. About 40% of global corporate R&D in AI is controlled by just 100 companies, most of which are based in the U.S. and China. Meanwhile, tech giants like Apple, Nvidia, and Microsoft now hold market valuations that rival the entire GDP of Africa — underscoring how uneven the playing field has become.
This concentration of power means that many countries, especially those in the Global South, risk being left behind. UNCTAD points out that 118 countries currently have no voice in global discussions on AI governance.
Still, the report isn’t all doom and gloom. It emphasizes that AI isn’t just about replacing jobs — it can also create new industries, empower workers, and fuel innovation, if there’s proper investment in skills development. For developing countries to keep pace, they must be included in conversations around AI regulation and ethical use.
To promote more equitable growth, the U.N. agency recommends several key actions: creating systems for AI transparency, developing shared infrastructure, promoting open-source AI models, and fostering global collaboration on AI knowledge and tools.
“AI has the potential to drive shared prosperity,” the report concludes. “But that will only happen if countries work together to shape its future. Strategic investment, inclusive policies, and international cooperation are essential to ensure that AI closes — rather than deepens — the gap between nations.”
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